An analyst claims that Russia's ability to export 2.2 million barrels of oil per month, as discussed by Donald Trump, is unrealistic due to ongoing strikes targeting Russian oil refineries. The author states that over half of Russia's refining capacity is currently disabled and that Russia only managed to export 0.1 million barrels in September.

The author suggests that Trump may attempt to leverage this deal for his voters, but it will not help with fuel prices. The analyst also notes potential risks, including pressure on Ukraine to cease refinery strikes and the possibility of some European countries resuming business as usual, though this is deemed unlikely given ongoing threats.