A Telegram post claims that Russian oil refining has been declining for ten consecutive months, with average daily production falling by 38,000 barrels in September according to OPEC data. The post attributes this decline to Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries, specifically targeting secondary processing units. Repairs for these units reportedly take six to eight months, and Western sanctions limit access to spare parts, hindering recovery.

The analysis highlights that Russia's budget has suffered losses due to the reduced refining capacity. April's additional oil and gas revenues were only 21 billion rubles, a figure deemed disproportionate to the industry's historical contribution to the federal budget. The surge in oil and gas revenues in May to approximately 1 trillion rubles is attributed to high prices in March-April, not a recovery in capacity. The post concludes that Russia's attempt to reduce its reliance on oil will result in significant economic disruption.